Which locality are you considering?

350 licenses do not divide evenly across 129 localities. Some will draw dozens of applicants. Others will draw a handful, and a number are modelled to receive none at all.

Where you file changes your standing more than anything else you control — and once you file, that choice is made.

Five or more licenses

Fairfax, Prince William, Virginia Beach, Loudoun, Chesterfield, Henrico, Chesapeake, Arlington, Norfolk, Richmond City, Newport News, Stafford, Alexandria, Spotsylvania, Hampton.

Two to four licenses

Albemarle through Henry. Competitive, but a real allocation to compete for.

About one license

A single license, or close to it. One applicant wins. Everyone else starts over.

Likely none at all

Modelled below a whole license. People are scouting property in these right now.

Standing runs with population, not against it. Fairfax models near the top of the field; a small locality with a single allocation runs well below it. The rural shortcut is the opposite of what most applicants assume.

Modelled estimate, not a prediction. Derived from a probability model using published allocation counts and locality-level factors. The CCA has not published official application counts.

Modelled from 350 authorised licenses and expected applications. Allocation is not final until the CCA publishes regulations on February 1, 2027.